The Roman Empire was not built in a day.
The same can be said for Research in Motion when it was on top, Apple and iOS when the iPhone reached number one, and, Android now that it is top dog. It took years for each of these platforms to best their competition and become the number one selling smartphone operating system.
I know that there is a lot of excitement and anticipation surrounding the release of BlackBerry 10 in Q1 next year, however, I have to admit that I am hearing some pretty lofty goals from die-hard BlackBerry fans that, even if BlackBerry 10 is to Android and iOS what Android and iOS are to the current BlackBerry OS, simply have no chance of coming true…
To make it plain, BlackBerry 10 will not take out iOS, Android, or Windows Phone no matter how good it is. BlackBerry 10 has no shot at besting the iPhone or Android and will have it’s hands full competing with Windows Phone for 3rd place.
The BlackBerry is currently in 3rd place for U.S. smartphone market share, but, will soon slip to fourth place behind Windows Phone. I believe that the best that RIM could hope for is getting back in front of Microsoft with BlackBerry 10, which, by the time BlackBerry 10 devices become available, will be a difficult task.
I plan on getting a BlackBerry 10 device as soon as they are available in the U.S. and hope that it will be the best mobile operating system available when it comes out. If, however, I had to call it I would say that whatever position RIM is in when BlackBerry 10 becomes available will be the position it will remain in until whatever comes after BlackBerry 10 is released.
BlackBerry 10 may be able to legitimately compete with Windows Phone for third place, but, thinking it is going to get in front of the iPhone or Android… well, that is more than wishful thinking…
Do you think that BlackBerry 10 can compete for more than third place? We’d love read your thoughts in the comments.
Still waiting for a compelling reason to switch to WP8 from BlackBerry. In the interim it’s BlackBerry 10 in the number three position in my opinion. I may be fine with this, but I am certain that RIM is striving for higher ground.
Stirring the Pot again I see lol. Usually I would come with some emotional felt comment but right now I’m just gonna say what ever and whoever is in 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th it won’t matter in the end. What matters is that the more options we have the better. I’m just glad RIM is still on the track!
I am pulling for BlackBerry 10 and plan on getting a new when the one with a keyboard comes out, but, the difference between 3rd and 4th place does matter because there have really only ever been 2 or 3 options.
History tells us that 4th place generally has been a coffin. Just look at Windows CE, Windows Phone, Palm, and Symbian.
BB 10 does not have a prayer of competing with Android or iOS, its just too far behind. And this is before the expected iPhone 5 availability date later this month.
Missing from your analysis is RIM’s current financial status. If the quarterly financial results, to be announced on Sept. 27th, don’t improve from last quarter, and BB 10 is not a grand slam hit, RIM won’t be able to survive much longer in its present form. If the two billion cash they have is depleted no bank is going to loan them more.
On the other hand, Microsoft has unlimited cash reserves. The best BB 10 can hope for is 4th place, if RIM survives.
Still does not matter, Yes RIM is behind , Yes BB10 Has to be a grand slam and to expect RIM to takeover the number 1 come on man we know that’s not going to happen. I will continue to preach this…WE NEED OPTIONS , WE MUST HAVE DIVERSITY! In the words of the great KRS-ONE “somebody has to be somebody in order for somebody to be somebody” So in reality BlackBerry is needed , maybe not by many but it is needed. Let’s see how this game plays out.
All Blackberry needs to do is retain the current users. There are already folks who are not fond of the fact the keyboard options are decreasing for Android and of course none for iPhone. There are some folks who do miss features of their Blackberry. So, there is a chance of them gaining some of those persons back. Windows Phone isn’t exactly making waves. Not everyone likes the universal look of all apps with MetroUI.
The hope RIM has is that there are a lot of people who really want BlackBerry 10 to do well. Not a lot of people think about Windows Phone, which, is an awesome mobile operating system.
The chance that RIM has is that Windows Phone probably won’t catch on until Windows 8 really catches on and people realize that they can use metro style apps on both their PCs and Phones.
RIM will need to get many of their 80 million subscribers to upgrade to BlackBerry 10, and, they are going need them to do it early on before the momentum on Windows 8 catches on.
I think that RIM’s short term goal for the BlackBerry is for it to recapture third place once BlackBerry 10 gets rolling. Unlike MS, RIM doesn’t have an unlimited supply of cash to keep the company running if its only product isn’t truly competing.
We are all forgeting that to get bb10 we will need to plop down another 200 – 500.
I liked bb in its hayday but it has come to the point to move on. If I am going to spend more money and get stuck in another contract it better be a decent phone that will last. What assurance do we have that bb will survive even after bb 10.
we shall see!
I know that this is not going to be a popular comment on a BlackBerry site, but, I don’t think RIM has even a remote chance of getting into third place with BlackBerry 10.
People don’t realize how badly the last two CEO’s royally screwed this company by simply not innovating the platform.
Microsoft is in the smartphone game for the long haul, has virtually limitless resources, and, can barely make a dent in the industry with an OS that most think is pretty good. How is this going to be any different for the new BlackBerry OS?
At this point, it really doesn’t matter how good BlackBerry 10. If the company can survive in 2013, it will only be a fringe player for the foreseeable future.
Here is my prediction… Apple will sell more iPhone 5 devices in pre-order than RIM will sell BlackBerry 10 devices period.
Sadly for RIM, it is no longer playing the same game as Apple and Google…