I’ve been saying for a long time that Research in Motion puts too many eggs in one basket by (generally) allowing CDMA BlackBerry development to lag so far behind GSM development. You can tell me that GSM is the global standard until you are blue in the face but the reality is that the United States is RIM’s most important market and, depending on what numbers you look at, more CDMA BlackBerrys are sold in the U.S. than GSM.
RIM has been able to get by with their old release strategy largely in part because Verizon subscribers generally don’t switch carriers. RIM knows that even if a CDMA BlackBerry is released on Verizon a year after it it first released on a GSM carriers that there will be Verizon subscribers eagerly awaiting its launch.
Although I don’t agree with this strategy I can see some of the benefits of it from RIM’s perspective… The main benefit being that it allows RIM to capture lightening in a bottle twice. If a new GSM BlackBerry is a big hit you can pretty much be sure that the CDMA version will hit big as well. The problem, however, with this strategy is that your biggest GSM carrier becomes the flag ship carrier for the the hottest mobile device, well…ever and that device is not named BlackBerry.
In case you haven’t been keeping up with the news lately, Apple released a little mobile device called the iPhone 3G not quite a month ago and most reports indicate that it it is the fastest selling mobile device in history. It just so happens that not only is AT&T the flag ship carrier for the iPhone, but, they are the exclusive carrier for the iPhone in the United States.
I am not a conspiracy theorist, however, I don’t believe that it is just a coincidence that AT&T is experiencing huge success with the iPhone 3G and the BlackBerry Bold, which was supposed to makes it’s debut last month is probably not coming out until next month or later. AT&T, being the sole carrier of the iPhone in the U.S., has a strong desire to sell as many iPhones as they can. This is not to say that they don’t want to sell as many BlackBerrys as they can, however, I believe that they are going to focus their efforts on what is hot right now.
This is a problem for RIM because GSM BlackBerrys, with the exception of the upcoming BlackBerry Thunder, always come out significantly before their CDMA counterparts. If AT&T isn’t all gung-ho about releasing a new device, this poses a problem for RIM because T-Mobile just isn’t big enough to be the primary GSM provider in the U.S.
To make a long story short, I’d be willing to bet that the BlackBerry Thunder will be the first of several new devices to come out in a CDMA variant first.
I have always advocated that the way for RIM to compete would be to release CDMA devices for VZW concurrent with GSM releases.
Leverage the value of the VZW subscriber base and their reputation for network reliability.
But until RIM or VZW feel it in their wallets nothing will change. Perhaps finally they are feeling enough heat from the iPhone.
I will also say this: Go to any Apple store and to this day there are long lines waiting to purchase an iPhone 3G. I don’t think we’ve ever seen anything like this in a cell phone before, and you cannot tell me that the iPhone is not impacting VZW or RIM sales.
RIM is definitely feeling something. I work in an AT&T store and every since about a week or 10 days before the release of the iPhone 3G, our BlackBerry sales have dropped significantly. We used to get regular people coming in all the time looking for the BlackBerry Curve and a few for the BlackBerry Pearl.
Since the iPhone came out the only customers coming in looking specifically for the BlackBerry are corporate types getting them for work. We’ve had more people come in looking for BlackBerry Bold and walking out with an iPhone than we have had folks walking in for an iPhone and walking out with we have have way more Curves than we do iPhones.
You keep saying the same thing so apparently you don’t get it. CDMA is a dead network technology. GSM is the global standard. Hundreds of GSM carriers offer the BlackBerry outside of the United States. A few dozen offer CDMA. It would be a weak business move by RIM if they focused on CDMA. Plain and simple…
Hey, hellno… I mean Bob is back.
I think that RIM’s strategy will be coming out with dual technology handsets as the Thunder moving forward to reduce the lag between carriers. Ultimately if they wish to maintain their enterprise dominance they will have to do a few things
1) Eliminate the BESCAL
2) Do more to promote BlackBerry Unite or Professional
3) Have professionals design and put more themes on the BB
Is GSM the global standard? Yes
Does RIM have more GSM carriers than CDMA? Yes
Is CDMA a dead network technology? Not dead but dying off… We’ll call that a Yes
Why does none of this matter?
Most BlackBerrys sold in RIM’s biggest market which has over 70% global market share are CDMA based. If you don’t count North American GSM carriers, more CDMA BlackBerrys are sold than all other GSM carriers combined.
Robb nails it: the issue is not whether GSM is bigger than CDMA across the world…it undoubtedly is.
The issue is the market for RIM and that CDMA is huge for RIM…and as Robb notes, by far and away their biggest market is the US, and in the US they sell about as many CDMA BB’s as GSM…
In short, CDMA BB’s are a huge market for RIM and a huge portion of their profits…it’s a niche that cannot and should not be neglected or given secondary status. If RIM would be able to release the Bold right about now on Verizon then they would have something to crow about while Apple scoops up the sales. As it is Apple will own the entire summer.
” I work in an AT&T store and every since about a week or 10 days before the release of the iPhone 3G, our BlackBerry sales have dropped significantly.”
That would jibe with the report that Apple’s now manufacturing 800,000 iPhones a week. They’re pretty tight with the supply chain and wouldn’t do such a thing if they weren’t sure the demand was there.
Many Corp users typically never see an ATT store….or Verizion for that matter. They order from the vendor directly on a daily basis via their IT, facility or procurement departments. BB orders maintain a steady stream at my company. But when new BB devices come out, there is a major surge…just like the consumers rushing to Iphones. Even tho we don’t like them to buy new phones but every 2 years, they find a way to lose, break or “hand-me-down to the new guy” in order to get the latest and greatest BB. That’ll happen with Bold and Thunder soon. Bad thing is; when some go for Bold, they’ll want to go to Thunder only a few months later. That happened with the Curve over the 8800’s.